Snow Day Calculator
Enter the conditions from your own forecast and get a 0 to 100 score with a band: unlikely, possible, likely or very likely. It is a simple points model that does not fetch weather and was not calibrated against real closure data. It is not an official prediction. Only your school district decides and announces closures, so always check district and local alerts.
Last updated November 4, 2026
From your own forecast, 0 to 60.
From -60 to 60 °F.
Only if your district publishes one. Leave blank otherwise.
Result
Snow day score 40 / 100: possible
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Expected snowfall | 25 pts |
| Ice or freezing rain | 0 pts |
| Low temperature or wind chill | 0 pts |
| Snow already on ground | 0 pts |
| Timing | 10 pts |
| District history | 5 pts |
| Road and bus multiplier | × 1 |
This is a rule-of-thumb estimate, not calibrated against real closure data and not an official prediction. Only your school district decides and announces closures; check district and local alerts.
Show the work
Formula: score = min(100, round((sum of factor points) × road multiplier + 20 if snowfall reaches the district threshold)). Bands: 0-24 unlikely, 25-49 possible, 50-74 likely, 75-100 very likely.
- Expected snowfall: 25 points.
- Ice or freezing rain: 0 points.
- Low temperature or wind chill: 0 points.
- Snow already on ground: 0 points.
- Timing: 10 points.
- District history: 5 points.
- Subtotal: 25 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 10 + 5 = 40.
- Road multiplier: 40 × 1 = 40.
- No district threshold entered: 0 points added.
- Score: round(40), capped at 100 = 40, which falls in the "possible" band.
Result: Snow day score 40 / 100: possible
How the snow day score works
score = min(100, round((snowfall + ice + cold + ground snow + timing + history) × road multiplier + threshold bonus))
Each factor you enter earns points from the table below. The six factor points are added up, multiplied by a road and bus factor, and then a flat 20 points are added if you entered a district closure threshold and the expected snowfall reaches it. The result is rounded and capped at 100.
Snowfall points by inches: under 1 earns 0, 1 to under 3 earns 5, 3 to under 6 earns 15, 6 to under 9 earns 25, 9 to under 12 earns 32, and 12 or more earns 40. Ice or freezing rain: none 0, light 15, heavy 30. Low temperature or wind chill in °F: 10 or above 0, 0 to 9 earns 4, -10 to -1 earns 8, and below -10 earns 12.
Snow already on the ground by inches: under 2 earns 0, 2 to under 6 earns 3, 6 to under 12 earns 6, and 12 or more earns 8. Timing: overnight before school 10, during the school day 3. District history: rarely 0, sometimes 5, often 10. Road multiplier: urban × 0.9, suburban × 1, rural × 1.2.
Bands: 0 to 24 is unlikely, 25 to 49 possible, 50 to 74 likely and 75 to 100 very likely. These weights are a rule of thumb chosen to be easy to read and check. They were not fitted to real closure records, so treat the band as a conversation starter, never as an answer.
See how we calculate for the formulas, sources and review schedule behind every calculator.
What this model does not know
Real closure decisions weigh things the model cannot see: how fast plows can clear bus routes, whether the district has already used its snow days, neighboring districts, power outages, and a superintendent consulting road crews before dawn. A score of 90 does not mean a closure, and a score of 10 does not rule one out.
The score also depends on how accurate the numbers you type are. Forecasts change, and snowfall totals can shift by several inches between the evening and morning. Update the inputs when the forecast changes, and rely on official announcements from your district.
Using a district closure threshold
Some districts publish a rule, such as a closure when 8 inches or more is forecast. If yours does, type that number into the optional threshold field. When expected snowfall reaches it, 20 points are added after the road multiplier. Leave it blank when your district has no stated rule, and the model adds nothing.
How to use the Snow Day Calculator
- Type the expected snowfall in inches and choose the ice level.
- Enter the low temperature or wind chill in °F and the snow already on the ground.
- Choose the timing, how often your district closes, and your road type.
- Optionally add your district closure threshold, then read the score, band and points per factor.
- Open Show the work to see each step, or use Copy, Print or Share.
Worked example
A suburban district that sometimes closes expects 8 inches overnight with a low of 5 °F, 3 inches already on the ground and no ice. The factors add up to 47 points, multiplied by 1 for suburban roads, so the score is 47: possible.
| Factor | Input | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Snowfall | 8 in | 25 |
| Ice | None | 0 |
| Cold | 5 °F | 4 |
| Snow on ground | 3 in | 3 |
| Timing | Overnight | 10 |
| History | Sometimes | 5 |
| Total (× 1) | Suburban | 47 |
Frequently asked questions
Is this an official school closure prediction?
No. It is a simple points model run on numbers you enter, and it was not calibrated against real closure data. Only the school district decides and announces closures, so check district and local alerts.
Does the calculator use live weather?
No. It makes no network requests and fetches no forecasts. You type in the conditions you already know from your own forecast, and the score only reflects those entries.
Why does a rural district score higher?
The model multiplies the points by 1.2 for rural roads, because long bus routes on unplowed roads are a common reason for closing. Urban roads use 0.9 and suburban roads use 1.
What does a high score mean?
A very likely band only means your inputs add up to 75 or more points. It does not mean school is closed. Wait for the announcement from your district.
Can I enter metric values?
The calculator uses US units: inches of snow and degrees Fahrenheit. Divide centimeters by 2.54 for inches, and convert Celsius with F = C × 9/5 + 32 before entering.